Over at SB Nation I've completed my preview of the National Championship game between Alabama and Clemson.
As good as Deshaun Watson and Clemson's offense is, it's hard to see them scoring a ton of points on this Tide defense which features their best pass-rush of the Saban era.
On the other hand, I'm no big believer in a simple Alabama offense guided by Jacob Coker teeing off on a talented, complex, and laser-guided Brent Venables defense either.
I see the game coming down to turnovers and it's hard to project how that could turn out. I'd like to bet against Coker trying to unlock the Clemson defense but Alabama QBs are generally exceptionally stingy with the football, especially in big games like this.
Lotta prognosticators are expecting Alabama to win in the 4th quarter after beating down Clemson with their run game...I see that as possible, but so are the chances of Clemson's pace allowing Watson to break loose late in the game.
It's probably going to be Alabama unless the Tigers can force some fumbles on sack/strips or on special teams.
Friday, January 8, 2016
Thursday, January 7, 2016
Monday, January 4, 2016
This Bama DL...
We've not seen anything like it before from the Saban era.
Out of curiosity I looked up the sack numbers for the 2015 season and was shocked by how many Tide DL (or DE/OLBs) had put up big time numbers. In particular they are capable of playing a four-man unit on pass downs consisting of Jonathan Allen (12 sacks), A'Shawn Robinson (3.5 sacks), Tim Williams (9.5 sacks), and Ryan Anderson (6 sacks).
Combined those four players managed to get 31 sacks this year. When you compare that total to the numbers posted by the best four DL or DE/OLB of any other Saban era you get a sense of how much improved this Tide pass-rush was over previous iterations.
Some of those units, such as the 2012 group or 2009 group, were at their best when blitzing a linebacker (Mosley in '12) or nickel (Arenas in '09) and not from simply utilizing basic four-man pressures or stunts.
The leap in two years from 2013's total of 13.5 sacks to this season's 31 is truly remarkable and a testament to how well Saban is starting to adjust the Tide roster to the demands of the spread era.
I think this is primarily attributable first to the emergence of Jonathan Allen as a dominant interior pass-rusher. That dude is blazing quick inside, he draws a ton of attention that can then no longer be sent outside to help the OTs, and many interior OL simply lack the hips and base to pick him up on a stunt.
It's also attributable to the fact that their DE/OLBs are more explosive this year than they've been in recent seasons. At 6'4" and 6'2" respectively, Williams and Anderson are also guys that are designed more for rushing the passer from a three point stance than playing all of the assignments typically asked of an Alabama 3-4 OLB.
It was only a matter of time before Saban stopped stockpiling as many interior DL and stout, run-stuffing LBs in order to also mix in some DBs and pass-rushers. Now we are starting to see the fruit of those efforts.
Out of curiosity I looked up the sack numbers for the 2015 season and was shocked by how many Tide DL (or DE/OLBs) had put up big time numbers. In particular they are capable of playing a four-man unit on pass downs consisting of Jonathan Allen (12 sacks), A'Shawn Robinson (3.5 sacks), Tim Williams (9.5 sacks), and Ryan Anderson (6 sacks).
Combined those four players managed to get 31 sacks this year. When you compare that total to the numbers posted by the best four DL or DE/OLB of any other Saban era you get a sense of how much improved this Tide pass-rush was over previous iterations.
The leap in two years from 2013's total of 13.5 sacks to this season's 31 is truly remarkable and a testament to how well Saban is starting to adjust the Tide roster to the demands of the spread era.
I think this is primarily attributable first to the emergence of Jonathan Allen as a dominant interior pass-rusher. That dude is blazing quick inside, he draws a ton of attention that can then no longer be sent outside to help the OTs, and many interior OL simply lack the hips and base to pick him up on a stunt.
It's also attributable to the fact that their DE/OLBs are more explosive this year than they've been in recent seasons. At 6'4" and 6'2" respectively, Williams and Anderson are also guys that are designed more for rushing the passer from a three point stance than playing all of the assignments typically asked of an Alabama 3-4 OLB.
It was only a matter of time before Saban stopped stockpiling as many interior DL and stout, run-stuffing LBs in order to also mix in some DBs and pass-rushers. Now we are starting to see the fruit of those efforts.
Friday, January 1, 2016
Baylor's single-wing offense and spread football's final destination
Over at Football Study Hall I broke down some of Baylor's single-wing offense they used to bludgeon the Tar Heels with in their bowl game.
As good a strategy as this was for Briles the response from Gene Chizik was equally bad. In particular, he emphasized a strategy that required much greater safety play than his team could offer.
The importance of good safety play is increasing regularly in today's game as a dominant safety tandem in a cover 4 scheme can really spell the end for even the most brilliant and balanced spread offenses. The great challenge will come when more teams adopt the Kansas State style of single wing spread football.
When the QB is a good, sturdy inside runner and an effective passer there are no easy answers.
If you watched Westlake this year, who featured Texas QB commit Sam Ehlinger at QB, you saw a team that went all the way to the 6A state title, even beating Allen on the way, based on an offense that fused the single wing with the Air Raid. The Galena Park North Shore team that finally took them down had to do so by playing a lot of what basically amounted to press-zero coverage with everyone in the box or jamming a Westlake WR.
Fortunately for them, they had the athletes to play press coverage and survive against Westlake's Air Raid while always having enough numbers in the box to limit Ehlinger's runs. Had Westlake's best WR been healthy it probably would have been a different story.
This style of football is coming back to the main stage, it's only a matter of time. We'll see glimpses of it in the playoff final when Clemson will undoubtedly give Watson 20 carries or more against Bama.
As good a strategy as this was for Briles the response from Gene Chizik was equally bad. In particular, he emphasized a strategy that required much greater safety play than his team could offer.
The importance of good safety play is increasing regularly in today's game as a dominant safety tandem in a cover 4 scheme can really spell the end for even the most brilliant and balanced spread offenses. The great challenge will come when more teams adopt the Kansas State style of single wing spread football.
When the QB is a good, sturdy inside runner and an effective passer there are no easy answers.
If you watched Westlake this year, who featured Texas QB commit Sam Ehlinger at QB, you saw a team that went all the way to the 6A state title, even beating Allen on the way, based on an offense that fused the single wing with the Air Raid. The Galena Park North Shore team that finally took them down had to do so by playing a lot of what basically amounted to press-zero coverage with everyone in the box or jamming a Westlake WR.
Fortunately for them, they had the athletes to play press coverage and survive against Westlake's Air Raid while always having enough numbers in the box to limit Ehlinger's runs. Had Westlake's best WR been healthy it probably would have been a different story.
This style of football is coming back to the main stage, it's only a matter of time. We'll see glimpses of it in the playoff final when Clemson will undoubtedly give Watson 20 carries or more against Bama.
Early thoughts on the first round of the playoffs
Many recruiting writers love nothing more than to extoll the importance of recruiting. It's rather self-serving, honestly, as they are basically pumping up the content they produce as the be-all and end-all of football analysis and coverage.
Consequently, Alabama result against Michigan State is being heralded by some as the triumph of recruiting over development. It's not, in reality, but is instead the triumph of well-coached exceptional talent over well-coached good talent. Call me back when a decently-coached team of 4/5-star underclassmen take down Michigan State.
However, there's no doubt that Alabama looked like a terrifying dreadnought in that game. There were two aspects to their victory which were particularly horrifying and which should keep Dabo Sweeney up at night over the next week.
First was the pass-rush that Alabama put on Connor Cook. Jonathan Allen should be a first day draft choice and his ability to get pressure inside on Sparty's OL completely ruined their entire offensive scheme, particularly their normally very effective pass down defense which depends on spread sets.
Tim Williams and Ryan Anderson are also both effective pass-rushers, Alabama hasn't had anyone like any of these guys since the last time they won a title, and they made mince-meat of Sparty's right tackle Kody Kieler.
I'll have to see how they fared against OU's DL but I'm not initially optimistic about the ability of Clemson's OL to stand up to these guys and keep Deshaun Watson clean.
The other horrifying aspect of the game was how well Jacob Coker responded to the inevitable challenge from Dantonio to win the game without simply handing off to Derrick Henry 30x and watching him run for 200+ yards.
25-30 passing at 9.5 ypa is no joke, and his ability to avoid interceptions (or intentional grounding calls) hearkened back to Saban Alabama QBs of old who have always played with well-drilled turnover-avoidance habits in big games.
I detailed before the game how Alabama would need to attack the schwerpunkt of the Spartan defensive structure to relieve pressure off the run game and score points, or else run the ball into loaded fronts.
They did this most effectively with Coker connecting deep to the slot receivers, which is the best way to attack aggressive quarters teams like Sparty, and completely rolled up the Spartan phalanx. Coker was accurate and hit a few tight windows over the course of the game. Clemson should be concerned.
The other side of the bracket went more or less how you might have expected. Watson was given repeated chances to run the ball and went for 145 yards on a Sooner front that was pretty beat up and exhausted before the third quarter even began.
Losing Charles Walker surely hurt the Sooners badly, as did the long-true fact that they play a 3-4 defense but feature athletes at ILB rather than stone-walling dudes like Reggie Ragland or Reuben Foster who can stop the forward progress of a climbing guard or power-back. That doesn't tend to matter much in the Big 12 but it matters in the playoffs.
They also got bit by the injury bug, with RBs Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon both going down over the course of the game and leaving Baker Mayfield to try and beat a good Clemson secondary and pass-rush by himself. But there was no doubt in this game that Clemson was a superior squad and they physically beat the tar out of the Sooners for four quarters. Stoops' squads have never handled that particularly well over his tenure.
Clemson will now try to bring their QB-run game against the Tide in the hopes that Saban still doesn't have the answers for this style of offense. There's going to be a lot of people pushing the idea that he doesn't and that this is the way to take down the Tide...I think the actual result of this game is probably less exciting than that.
Consequently, Alabama result against Michigan State is being heralded by some as the triumph of recruiting over development. It's not, in reality, but is instead the triumph of well-coached exceptional talent over well-coached good talent. Call me back when a decently-coached team of 4/5-star underclassmen take down Michigan State.
However, there's no doubt that Alabama looked like a terrifying dreadnought in that game. There were two aspects to their victory which were particularly horrifying and which should keep Dabo Sweeney up at night over the next week.
First was the pass-rush that Alabama put on Connor Cook. Jonathan Allen should be a first day draft choice and his ability to get pressure inside on Sparty's OL completely ruined their entire offensive scheme, particularly their normally very effective pass down defense which depends on spread sets.
Tim Williams and Ryan Anderson are also both effective pass-rushers, Alabama hasn't had anyone like any of these guys since the last time they won a title, and they made mince-meat of Sparty's right tackle Kody Kieler.
I'll have to see how they fared against OU's DL but I'm not initially optimistic about the ability of Clemson's OL to stand up to these guys and keep Deshaun Watson clean.
The other horrifying aspect of the game was how well Jacob Coker responded to the inevitable challenge from Dantonio to win the game without simply handing off to Derrick Henry 30x and watching him run for 200+ yards.
25-30 passing at 9.5 ypa is no joke, and his ability to avoid interceptions (or intentional grounding calls) hearkened back to Saban Alabama QBs of old who have always played with well-drilled turnover-avoidance habits in big games.
I detailed before the game how Alabama would need to attack the schwerpunkt of the Spartan defensive structure to relieve pressure off the run game and score points, or else run the ball into loaded fronts.
They did this most effectively with Coker connecting deep to the slot receivers, which is the best way to attack aggressive quarters teams like Sparty, and completely rolled up the Spartan phalanx. Coker was accurate and hit a few tight windows over the course of the game. Clemson should be concerned.
The other side of the bracket went more or less how you might have expected. Watson was given repeated chances to run the ball and went for 145 yards on a Sooner front that was pretty beat up and exhausted before the third quarter even began.
Losing Charles Walker surely hurt the Sooners badly, as did the long-true fact that they play a 3-4 defense but feature athletes at ILB rather than stone-walling dudes like Reggie Ragland or Reuben Foster who can stop the forward progress of a climbing guard or power-back. That doesn't tend to matter much in the Big 12 but it matters in the playoffs.
They also got bit by the injury bug, with RBs Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon both going down over the course of the game and leaving Baker Mayfield to try and beat a good Clemson secondary and pass-rush by himself. But there was no doubt in this game that Clemson was a superior squad and they physically beat the tar out of the Sooners for four quarters. Stoops' squads have never handled that particularly well over his tenure.
Clemson will now try to bring their QB-run game against the Tide in the hopes that Saban still doesn't have the answers for this style of offense. There's going to be a lot of people pushing the idea that he doesn't and that this is the way to take down the Tide...I think the actual result of this game is probably less exciting than that.
Previewing the 2016 Texas DL
Texas hasn't had a dearth of interior DL like they will in 2016 since the 2009 season and things were in better shape then than they are now.
How can the Texas staff build something up front that can protect a still young secondary and LB corps next season? Well first we have to examine what they are working with roster-wise. Check out my summary of the DL roster at Inside Texas.
How can the Texas staff build something up front that can protect a still young secondary and LB corps next season? Well first we have to examine what they are working with roster-wise. Check out my summary of the DL roster at Inside Texas.
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