There are three worthwhile games taking place this week in the Big 12 and they are probably going to clear up the Big 12 title race in a major way.
You've got Texas on the road vs Oklahoma State, Kansas State on the road vs West Virginia, and Oklahoma on the road vs TCU. The stakes in each game are actually pretty considerable.
Oklahoma State is probably not contending for the Big 12 title this year, they're just not there in terms of athleticism on defense and are a virtual lock to get burned a few times over the course of the season. That said, Mike Gundy and his staff are doing a pretty good job trying to make the most of this roster and they know how to attack a team that has a tendency to kill itself with mistakes as Texas has done this year. The Longhorn team that lost at Cal probably can't beat Oklahoma State on the road, so unless Texas fixed something from their bye week then they're going to continue their fourth consecutive season without a road win over a top-half Big 12 quarterback.
The oddsmakers have it at Oklahoma State -2.5, which is indicative of a Texas team that people don't trust on the road. Read a more in-depth preview FOR FREE HERE but I'll say this, if Texas plays a clean game on defense and is successfully aggressive throwing the deep ball then they should blow this Oklahoma State team away, but I'm not sure either of those things will happen.
West Virginia apparently hasn't beaten Kansas State in a very long time and have lost all four contests since they joined the Big 12. Collin Klein shredded their Geno Lewis team in 2012 and Jake Waters ripped them apart in 2013. In the last two games the Mountaineers lost 26-20 and 24-23, mostly because they gave up a special teams TD in each game.
The oddsmakers have it at West Virginia -3.5, which tells you that people are buying West Virginia as the darkhorse of the Big 12, unless they just believe Kansas State is bad.
The Wildcats have spent the last three weeks licking their wounds from the Stanford loss and tuning up their offense, which flickered some life at the end of the game against the Cardinal but was inept for much of the first half. This team is primarily a spread passing team that is going to rely on Ertz's mobility and a receiver corps that can put multiple athletes (particularly Dominique Heath) on the field and tear you up with yards after the catch.
They still have their typical single-wing running game but with a exceptionally young OL and lack of truly fearsome runners it's not up to the standards of say the Daniel Sams, Collin Klein, or Daniel Thomas attacks of years past. Their also kinda shaky in pass protection and Ertz can and will make mistakes, but he'll also evade a rusher now and then and hit Heath running free in your secondary.
The Mountaineers are more of a spread-running team with a really sturdy OL, a variety of good backs, and then Skyler Howard who's tough enough, quick enough, and accurate enough to be a pretty good all-around spread QB. If you put a sound, athletic defense on the field against this unit, as K-State will, I doubt they'll be lighting up the scoreboard.
If the Wildcat defense is the most dominant unit in this game I think Snyder will win this game and establish K-State as the "hey, don't look now but this squad may make some noise in the Big 12 this season" squad. If not, perhaps it'll end up being West Virginia.
Finally we have the early season showdown between the two teams most commonly picked to win the Big 12 in the preseason, TCU and Oklahoma.
The line here is OU -3.5, it seems people are having trouble letting go of Oklahoma as a top 25 team and favorite in the Big 12 as that line indicates they'd be favored -6.5 playing in Norman. Normally you'd NEVER EVER bet against Big Game Bob in a game of this magnitude with the season on the line. A loss here and Oklahoma is 1-4 going into the Red River Shootout against a Texas team that has physically whipped them in the last three rivalry games, so Oklahoma has every incentive to show up in a big way and redeem their season.
But the problem is that you'd have expected that two weeks ago at home against Ohio State as well, yet the Sooner defense frequently looked confused and lackadaisical. So are they going to be hyped for a road trip to Ft Worth two weeks later? Maybe, but I don't think cautious Mike has the trust of his charges.
TCU has had two main weaknesses this year for the Sooners to try and exploit this game. The first is that Kenny Hill has thrown early interceptions in almost every game this season and four on the year. He's tended to dominate afterwards and is averaging 8.3 yards per pass and 5 yards per carry so far but there's no better way to win on the road than to pick off the QB early and build a quick lead to take the crowd out.
Their other big weakness is something I detailed over at Football Study Hall, they haven't got the kind of cornerback play that their scheme relies on this year. Oklahoma needs to put sophomore WR A.D. Miller on the field early and throw to him often in this game because if they can't attack the Frogs on the perimeter then Gary Patterson is going to load up his defense to take away the Oklahoma run game and he can probably do it.
If Oklahoma wasn't 1-2 going into this game I'd think that TCU +3.5 at home was a really obvious play, but people are surely assuming that the Sooners are going to do everything they can off a bye week to win this game and right the ship. We'll see, my own suspicion is that this cautious Mike defense is just cooked.
Thursday, September 29, 2016
Let's talk about the Aggies
They're quite good this year, and you know a Longhorn fan isn't going to run to that conclusion even if they seek objectivity over homerism.
I've got a post on how their revamped offensive staff has been doing a surprisingly good job building out a really strong spread-option run game around Trevor Knight's limited but very effective skill set. You can find it on SB Nation here.
He's basically Dr. Bo with a stronger arm and less accuracy, or Chad Kelly with better decision-making and less accuracy. Trevor Knight is sort of a throw back to triple option football of the past, he'd have been dominant in the wishbone. He's just good enough throwing the ball to make it work in the spread-option concept Noel Mazzone is running and Josh Reynolds and Ricky Seals-Jones are big, easy targets that are hard to miss. I'm happy for him, Trevor Knight was always a stand-up guy, even if he's tended to use his powers for evil (Oklahoma, Texas A&M).
Anyways, combine a legit rushing attack with this Chavis defense and you have a pretty nice team. Alabama will probably stomp them into the dust but whatever, that's no great mark of shame. They'd do the same to most everyone else as well.
Trevor Knight is probably going to put Texas A&M out of the Tom Herman sweepstakes so it'll be interesting to see how Sumlin regroups this team after next offseason when they lose Knight, Josh Reynolds, both offensive tackles, DEs Daeshon Hall and Myles Garrett, and safeties Armani Watts and Justin Evans. That's a huge chunk of the core of their team.
I've got a post on how their revamped offensive staff has been doing a surprisingly good job building out a really strong spread-option run game around Trevor Knight's limited but very effective skill set. You can find it on SB Nation here.
He's basically Dr. Bo with a stronger arm and less accuracy, or Chad Kelly with better decision-making and less accuracy. Trevor Knight is sort of a throw back to triple option football of the past, he'd have been dominant in the wishbone. He's just good enough throwing the ball to make it work in the spread-option concept Noel Mazzone is running and Josh Reynolds and Ricky Seals-Jones are big, easy targets that are hard to miss. I'm happy for him, Trevor Knight was always a stand-up guy, even if he's tended to use his powers for evil (Oklahoma, Texas A&M).
Anyways, combine a legit rushing attack with this Chavis defense and you have a pretty nice team. Alabama will probably stomp them into the dust but whatever, that's no great mark of shame. They'd do the same to most everyone else as well.
Trevor Knight is probably going to put Texas A&M out of the Tom Herman sweepstakes so it'll be interesting to see how Sumlin regroups this team after next offseason when they lose Knight, Josh Reynolds, both offensive tackles, DEs Daeshon Hall and Myles Garrett, and safeties Armani Watts and Justin Evans. That's a huge chunk of the core of their team.
Thursday, September 22, 2016
North Dakota State beat Iowa...what does it mean?
I wrote up some of the big takeaways from the Bison's most recent achievement, a road win in Iowa. Check it out at Football Study Hall.
Breaking down how basic D took down the Sooners
Read about it at SB Nation!
You'll notice in the article that while Oklahoma did a better job against this style of defense than Notre Dame did against Michigan State, they didn't really get after the Buckeyes with as precise an attack as I would have liked were I a Sooner fan.
Perhaps the real crime though was on the part of "big game Bob" for allowing "cautious Mike" to putting such an unaggressive and poorly prepared defense on the field to defend his legacy and the Sooners' home field.
This play says it all...
Urban Meyer had Oklahoma out of sorts all day long with his formations, particularly a trips set that featured an H-back motioning around and one of the receivers lined up in such a way that made him an ineligible receiver. You have to know Ohio State is running the ball from that set yet Oklahoma couldn't stop it.
No more of this, Oklahoma fans, cautious Mike has got to go...
You'll notice in the article that while Oklahoma did a better job against this style of defense than Notre Dame did against Michigan State, they didn't really get after the Buckeyes with as precise an attack as I would have liked were I a Sooner fan.
Perhaps the real crime though was on the part of "big game Bob" for allowing "cautious Mike" to putting such an unaggressive and poorly prepared defense on the field to defend his legacy and the Sooners' home field.
This play says it all...
That's Ohio State's favorite play on 3rd and 5 or less and not only were the Sooners poorly lined up to stop it, they didn't even seem ready at the snap. It was obvious to me what play was coming and it clearly wasn't at all obvious to the players.
Urban Meyer had Oklahoma out of sorts all day long with his formations, particularly a trips set that featured an H-back motioning around and one of the receivers lined up in such a way that made him an ineligible receiver. You have to know Ohio State is running the ball from that set yet Oklahoma couldn't stop it.
No more of this, Oklahoma fans, cautious Mike has got to go...
Monday, September 19, 2016
Monday check-up on the Big 12
It was another tough week in the Big 12 with presumptive frontrunner Oklahoma getting predictably pasted by Ohio State, TCU losing star skill player Kavontae Turpin, and Texas failing their first road test in dramatic fashion.
My expectation all offseason was that the Big 12 would be competitive and lack an elite team that would make the playoffs...that may have been an understatement. The league looks WIDE open right now and none of these teams seems remotely likely to make the playoffs.
The Bears only won by 28 points against the always sound and sturdy Owls, who gashed Baylor on the ground but were helpless when throwing the ball.
Interesting notes from this game seem to be the continued ascendance of JaMycal Hasty (14 carries, 105 yards) and Seth Russell continuing to work his way back into shape.
Montell Cozart played terribly in this game and was replaced by Ryan Willis, who performed better. I think Beaty needs to accept that his best chance to win is with the less mobile pocket passer than the better athlete who struggles to throw the ball. Otherwise, they may not win another game.
The Frogs came close but couldn't quite cover the spread against the Cyclones. Interesting notes from this game include the fact that Turpin was lost for the year, TCU ran the ball pretty well, and TCU locked down Allen Lazard.
I didn't watch the game so I don't know how they achieved that result but either they fixed their cornerback issue already or they kept him bracketed for the entire game. I'm guessing the latter.
The Frogs now get a sort of respite with SMU next up and then they take on the 1-2 Oklahoma Sooners in what will be a YUGE Big 12 opener.
I don't feel bad, who knows anything about Florida Atlantic? The Wildcats interestingly seemed to focus on their run game in this one with eight different guys getting carries. They didn't suffer any major injuries (that I'm aware of) and they had a chance to practice some stuff they'll need later in the year.
I already feel confident that this will be a 7-8 win team that has an impact on the Big 12 race, whether or not they can actually improve enough to contend for the B12 will be hard to discern until they play another good team.
I thought Pitt's clever, pro-style offense would give the Cowboys fits while I questioned whether OSU was effective enough in the run game to really get after the Panthers' brand of press-quarters.
The 'Pokes definitely got ripped by the Panther offense, but they in turn destroyed Narduzzi's defense in the air and on the ground. Surely Pat is re-evaluating some of his anti-spread tactics at this point after surrendering over 100 rushing yards to Rennie Childs. Right?
James Washington amusingly had 296 receiving yards in this game. Talk about padding stats.
The Raiders gave up 45 points though and had to score 59 to cover the spread. Wowzas. The Bulldogs did basically whatever they wanted on offense while Mahomes did all that and more.
Kingsbury is going to need to look in the mirror this offseason and ask why his teams are so wretched on defense. You can't count on scoring 60 points every week in the Big 12.
Haven't had a chance to break this game down yet but I will in the coming days. I don't know how OU approached the Ohio State run game but whatever they tried didn't work. It may have been a simple issue of the Buckeyes simply having a superior team though, I was never buying this Oklahoma team as being on that talent level.
A Sooner victory was going to have to come as a result of superior experience and planning on both sides of the ball, the latter is hard to pull off against an Urban Meyer team.
The Sooners get TCU and Texas after a bye week. They could conceivably start the year 1-4. It's hard to believe that Stoops would ever allow that to happen, but it's not like Patterson and Strong are just sitting on their hands right now either.
Should have been the case, but Texas shot themselves in the foot a few times and Cal ended up taking over in the fourth quarter after looking like they were going to be murdered on the field early in the game.
More on Texas' defensive woes and their solution can be found here.
Next week's Oklahoma State vs Baylor game is looking like it may reveal a lot about how wide open the Big 12 is this season. The Bears seem an ominous threat to contend for the league title, which would probably infuriate everyone outside of Waco.
My expectation all offseason was that the Big 12 would be competitive and lack an elite team that would make the playoffs...that may have been an understatement. The league looks WIDE open right now and none of these teams seems remotely likely to make the playoffs.
Ian's pick: Baylor -30 over Rice. Wrong
The Bears only won by 28 points against the always sound and sturdy Owls, who gashed Baylor on the ground but were helpless when throwing the ball.
Interesting notes from this game seem to be the continued ascendance of JaMycal Hasty (14 carries, 105 yards) and Seth Russell continuing to work his way back into shape.
Ian's pick: Memphis +19.5 over Kansas. Vindicated
Montell Cozart played terribly in this game and was replaced by Ryan Willis, who performed better. I think Beaty needs to accept that his best chance to win is with the less mobile pocket passer than the better athlete who struggles to throw the ball. Otherwise, they may not win another game.
Ian's pick: TCU -24 against Iowa State. Wrong
The Frogs came close but couldn't quite cover the spread against the Cyclones. Interesting notes from this game include the fact that Turpin was lost for the year, TCU ran the ball pretty well, and TCU locked down Allen Lazard.
I didn't watch the game so I don't know how they achieved that result but either they fixed their cornerback issue already or they kept him bracketed for the entire game. I'm guessing the latter.
The Frogs now get a sort of respite with SMU next up and then they take on the 1-2 Oklahoma Sooners in what will be a YUGE Big 12 opener.
Ian's pick: KSU doesn't cover -22.5 vs Florida Atlantic. Wrong
I don't feel bad, who knows anything about Florida Atlantic? The Wildcats interestingly seemed to focus on their run game in this one with eight different guys getting carries. They didn't suffer any major injuries (that I'm aware of) and they had a chance to practice some stuff they'll need later in the year.
I already feel confident that this will be a 7-8 win team that has an impact on the Big 12 race, whether or not they can actually improve enough to contend for the B12 will be hard to discern until they play another good team.
Ian's pick: Pittsburgh +6.5 over Oklahoma State. Totally wrong.
I thought Pitt's clever, pro-style offense would give the Cowboys fits while I questioned whether OSU was effective enough in the run game to really get after the Panthers' brand of press-quarters.
The 'Pokes definitely got ripped by the Panther offense, but they in turn destroyed Narduzzi's defense in the air and on the ground. Surely Pat is re-evaluating some of his anti-spread tactics at this point after surrendering over 100 rushing yards to Rennie Childs. Right?
James Washington amusingly had 296 receiving yards in this game. Talk about padding stats.
Ian's pick: Tech covers 10.5 against La Tech. Vindicated
The Raiders gave up 45 points though and had to score 59 to cover the spread. Wowzas. The Bulldogs did basically whatever they wanted on offense while Mahomes did all that and more.
Kingsbury is going to need to look in the mirror this offseason and ask why his teams are so wretched on defense. You can't count on scoring 60 points every week in the Big 12.
Ian's pick: tOSU covers 2.5 and beats the Sooners. Vindicated
Haven't had a chance to break this game down yet but I will in the coming days. I don't know how OU approached the Ohio State run game but whatever they tried didn't work. It may have been a simple issue of the Buckeyes simply having a superior team though, I was never buying this Oklahoma team as being on that talent level.
A Sooner victory was going to have to come as a result of superior experience and planning on both sides of the ball, the latter is hard to pull off against an Urban Meyer team.
The Sooners get TCU and Texas after a bye week. They could conceivably start the year 1-4. It's hard to believe that Stoops would ever allow that to happen, but it's not like Patterson and Strong are just sitting on their hands right now either.
Ian's pick: Texas covers -8 against Cal. Wrong
Should have been the case, but Texas shot themselves in the foot a few times and Cal ended up taking over in the fourth quarter after looking like they were going to be murdered on the field early in the game.
More on Texas' defensive woes and their solution can be found here.
Next week's Oklahoma State vs Baylor game is looking like it may reveal a lot about how wide open the Big 12 is this season. The Bears seem an ominous threat to contend for the league title, which would probably infuriate everyone outside of Waco.
Friday, September 16, 2016
Breaking down TCU's problems on defense
Read up on what I found over at Football Study Hall.
On the TCU run defense, I just didn't see much to give me a lot of pause. For every play where there were errors and breakdowns there were others in which their DL made some plays, the linebackers flashed athleticism, or the safeties ran guys down on the perimeter.
For instance, here's TCU struggling with "power" from the Jackrabbits.
You see the Jackrabbit RB nail the cutback lane left open by the pulling guard and TCU doesn't fill it very aggressively, leading to some nice space.
Here's how the play was supposed to work for TCU:
The backside end is looking to keep the QB contained, the nose is working over into the new backside A-gap, the linebackers are fast flowing to the point of attack where the double team and lead block are, and the weakside safety is supposed to drop down and defend the cutback lane.
As you saw on the clip though, weakside safety Nick Orr was late to fill that assignment and since the Jackrabbits stacked up the strong side of their formation to the boundary the RB had a LOT of space to work in when he cleared the first level.
Later on that drive, the Jackrabbits ran power again:
This time the Jackrabbits get into a similar formation where the strength is loaded into the boundary again via motion. Nose tackle Joseph Broadnax doesn't get over into the new A-gap properly this time, perhaps because he's wary of giving up the cutback. Field cornerback Ranthony Texada and weak safety Nick Orr both rush to fill that cutback lane in the B-gap this time and get too deep to recover when the RB instead plunges into the A-gap.
What you're seeing here isn't really a failure in which players are being over-matched or unable to fulfill their assignments though. It's just missed assignments and mental busts that lead to costly mistakes.
I'm very confident that Gary Patterson can clean that up, and indeed the following week they were fairly solid against the Arkansas run game. The cornerback issues in coverage I broke down at Football Study Hall on the other hand...those might be bigger issues that linger into the season.
On the TCU run defense, I just didn't see much to give me a lot of pause. For every play where there were errors and breakdowns there were others in which their DL made some plays, the linebackers flashed athleticism, or the safeties ran guys down on the perimeter.
For instance, here's TCU struggling with "power" from the Jackrabbits.
You see the Jackrabbit RB nail the cutback lane left open by the pulling guard and TCU doesn't fill it very aggressively, leading to some nice space.
Here's how the play was supposed to work for TCU:
As you saw on the clip though, weakside safety Nick Orr was late to fill that assignment and since the Jackrabbits stacked up the strong side of their formation to the boundary the RB had a LOT of space to work in when he cleared the first level.
Later on that drive, the Jackrabbits ran power again:
This time the Jackrabbits get into a similar formation where the strength is loaded into the boundary again via motion. Nose tackle Joseph Broadnax doesn't get over into the new A-gap properly this time, perhaps because he's wary of giving up the cutback. Field cornerback Ranthony Texada and weak safety Nick Orr both rush to fill that cutback lane in the B-gap this time and get too deep to recover when the RB instead plunges into the A-gap.
What you're seeing here isn't really a failure in which players are being over-matched or unable to fulfill their assignments though. It's just missed assignments and mental busts that lead to costly mistakes.
I'm very confident that Gary Patterson can clean that up, and indeed the following week they were fairly solid against the Arkansas run game. The cornerback issues in coverage I broke down at Football Study Hall on the other hand...those might be bigger issues that linger into the season.
One stop shop for Texas coverage
Crazy things are happening with Texas football. Well they're sort of normal, in a way. All of the talent that the program is regularly able to bring to campus is being deployed in a way such that the players' strengths can overlap, build on each other, and bring devastation as a result.
I'm not at all convinced that Texas is ready to win the Big 12 (though plenty of other Texas writers are, naturally) but another convincing win against Cal would be a good indicator. You can read my Cal preview FREE by following this link.
What's more, Inside Texas is offering a promotional opportunity in which you can get all of our content FREE up till the OU game by signing up now. Options include a $9.99 a month deal, $99.99 for a full year, or the current "free for 17 days, then $9.99/month" deal.
If you want regular, nearly 24/7 access to my own thoughts on Texas as well as those of Eric Nahlin, Justin Wells, Joe Cook, or Scipio Tex then this is the way to go.
I'm not at all convinced that Texas is ready to win the Big 12 (though plenty of other Texas writers are, naturally) but another convincing win against Cal would be a good indicator. You can read my Cal preview FREE by following this link.
What's more, Inside Texas is offering a promotional opportunity in which you can get all of our content FREE up till the OU game by signing up now. Options include a $9.99 a month deal, $99.99 for a full year, or the current "free for 17 days, then $9.99/month" deal.
If you want regular, nearly 24/7 access to my own thoughts on Texas as well as those of Eric Nahlin, Justin Wells, Joe Cook, or Scipio Tex then this is the way to go.
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