Monday, February 8, 2016

My two big takeaways from the Super Bowl

I didn't pay a great deal of attention to this NFL season and, confession time, I didn't even stay awake for the entirety of the game. However, that's not going to stop me from getting two takeaways from that contest about the game.

First, upon reflection it's rather fitting that Peyton would go out as a Super Bowl champion after playing for a team that basically won in spite of his play rather than because of it.

His entire career has been a beacon shone on the fact that a single spectacular talent can't fully dominate a game of 11-on-11.

For much of his career, Peyton couldn't get to the Super Bowl because his Indianapolis Colts couldn't get out of the AFC, often because of his peer Tom Brady and the Patriots. New England was routinely a more complete team that failed to surround Brady with weapons as good as Marvin Harrison, Edgerrin James, or Reggie Wayne but did support him with some fine defenses.

Manning ended up participating in four Super Bowls. His first with the Colts they beat the Bears in 2007 by leaning on the running game, in particular RB draw plays that punished Chicago for dropping MLB Brian Urlacher into the deep middle in Tampa-2 when he read pass sets from the OL.

Dominick Rhodes had 113 yards on 21 carries while Joseph Addai added 77 more on 19 carries as the Colts carefully took down the Bears 29-17.

In Manning's second Super Bowl, again with the Colts, they ran into that "who dat" Saints team captained by Drew Brees. That was one of the only Brees/Payton era Saints teams that had a good defense and they pick six'd Manning in that game.

Then came the Denver era, which saw Manning reach the Super Bowl two more times. First against the Seahawks, who beat the hell out of them, and now against the Carolina Panthers who weren't able to handle the Bronco pass rush.

Here's a table of Manning's Super Bowl performances:


It's kinda funny that he's been in the Super Bowl every three years, the longevity of Manning's career is perhaps one of the most impressive parts of his resume.

Anyways as you can tell, Manning hasn't really dominated any Super Bowl and actually took a back seat in each of the two victories. For me that makes the most impressive thing about Manning the fact that he's capable of understanding when the path to victory is not one that runs through him.

Kobe Bryant, for instance, has rarely understood when this is the case. Credit to Manning.

My second takeaway from the Super Bowl was the tremendous advantage that comes from having an overwhelmingly elite facet of your team. For instance, a team with two great safeties is going to be difficult to out-leverage and drive the ball against.

A team with two great defensive tackles is going to destroy just about any run game and render you one-dimensional. A team with two great cornerbacks is going to always be able to force you to your third option.

Th 2015 Denver Broncos had two elite pass-rushers and it was more than any of their playoff opponents could handle.

They combined for 18.5 regular season sacks, but then in the postseason they really went off. They combined for one sack against Pittsburgh, then three sacks against New England, and finally 4.5 sacks against the Panthers. They completely negated the passing games of each of those teams by preventing their QBs from ever getting comfortable and thus they nullified the most difficult thing to stop in the modern game: an elite passing attack.

Taking down Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady, and Cam Newton in succession is a big deal.

Lots of people are going to come away from this saying, "see what you need is to field two elite pass-rushers!" That's not the case, what kills people is when you are overwhelmingly elite in one aspect of the game and can control games as a result.

Saturday, February 6, 2016

Breaking down West Virginia's 2016 recruiting class

It wasn't clear if Dana Holgorsen was going to be able to keep his job after last season, a year in which the Mountaineers had a legitimately strong team that finished 24th in S&P but only went 8-5 thanks to a brutal schedule.

Holgorsen did keep his job though and shook up his staff by adding OL guru Joe Wickline as his offensive coordinator, although like with Texas I'm not sure that Wickline will be the primary playcaller but an adjunct who specializes in turning 2/3 star clay into All-B12 OL. The last time he was united with Holgorsen they nearly killed the rest of the Big 12 and now they're hoping to recreate that magic this year. They'll need to after losing several key pieces from a quality defense.

I'll be curious to read stories about how this OL adjusts to Wickline's methods of teaching. Essentially, you adapt to him, he doesn't adapt to you. That said, they return their former OL coach Ron Crook from Stanford who will probably be the primary instructor there.

This class was ranked 39th nationally and 5th in the Big 12, for whatever that's worth and marks a departure from their normal strategy of loading up on any Floridian athlete that would take them. Instead they took 11 kids from Ohio and Pennsylvania and stayed in the North and South East for the vast majority of the class save for some JUCOs.

The last few West Virginia classes loaded up on athletes but they haven't taken a ton of DL which worries me for their long-term hopes. One thing that's clear to me from watching tape of Holgorsen's last few classes, he's earnestly trying to recruit the fastest team in the league and will never lack for athletes on either side of the ball.

Offense



Quarterback

Holgorsen adapted to Howard and the lack of a good passing attack last year by emphasizing QB run RPOs but ideally they want a pocket passer who can execute normal "hand off or throw" RPOs and take deep shots off play-action. If they can also run the ball and allow those QB run RPOs, alls the better.

Takes:

Cody Saunders: 6-2, 205. 3***
Panama City Beach, FL
Saunders is one of the only Floridians in this class, which is unusual for West Virginia since they often mine Florida (especially Miramar) for skill talent. Saunders is classified as a "pro-style" guy and let me list to you his SPARQ numbers as further evidence for why I hate that designation.
4.75 40, 4.24 shuttle, 34.6" vertical, 35.5' power ball toss.

This kid is a more than a little bit athletic and he runs plenty of QB run RPOs while also mixing in some scrambles and option runs that sometimes see him run between the tackles with power and burst. He's also got a great arm and is capable of throwing downfield on the run or throwing with accuracy outside of the hash marks. I think he's more comfortable right now ducking his head and running when nothing is there but if Holgorsen could program him to make Air Raid reads in the passing game he could become dominant.

Grade: A-
Saunders has exceptional potential in the Holgo-Raid offense and could very easily find a role as a wildcat operator, a receiver, or on defense if he can't handle the mental challenges of reading the field and making decisions as a QB. I don't know if he'll be as great as his physical talent would allow but his athleticism means he'll have a high floor as a scholarship player.

Running back

Wendell Smallwood is pretty much the ideal West Virginia RB. Holgorsen likes to do a lot with his backs and utilize them as lead blockers, receivers, inside runners, or all-around feature backs. His offense easily adapts to make use of varying skill sets so any good talent can find a role.

Takes:

Kennedy McKoy: 6-0, 190. 3***
Lexington, NC
Like many of the backs in this class, McKoy is good at running power but his preference is to attack defenses with either the cut upfield behind the double team or the bounce outside rather than finding the cutback lane. If Wickline uses power at WV he should be sure to teach the blocking scheme to allow that "bounce" lane outside. When McKoy gets into the open field his ability to change gears and stop on a dime makes him pretty dangerous. He can also flex out and catch passes.

Martell Pettaway: 5-10, 205. 3***
Detroit, MI
Pettaway is another guy that seems to prefer to bounce runs outside but he's more of a hard-running, between the tackles type than McKoy. If he gets loose he can hurt you some but he's more of a 4.7 type sprinter who's best as a guy to help you pick up steady gains. There's also a chance he ends up as a 230 pound FB.

Justin Crawford: 6-0, 195. 3***
Senatobia, MS (JUCO)
Crawford is pretty versatile, with the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield or run the ball. I think this is more of an attempt to get someone on campus who's more college-ready after playing JUCO-ball to help replace Smallwood while McKoy and Pettaway learn the craft.

Grade: B-
There's a lot of depth here and McKoy could be special but none of them seem like truly dominant players, although there's no doubt they could be plenty productive if the OL is good and the constraint passing game is working.

Ancillaries

West Virginia will play a lot of two-back and three-back sets on offense if they have the RB depth to do it and guys that are willing and able to throw blocks. I think some of their more blocking-minded guys though are failed LBs, beefed up RBs, and gritty walk-ons. They'll use a TE at times, especially in short-yardage settings, but it isn't a big part of the offense.

Takes:

Trevon Wesco: 6-5, 260. 3***
Scranton, PA (JUCO)
Every year it seems like half the Lackawanna CC roster is transferring into the Big 12, they must be a dominant program. Wesco knows how to catch the ball but you bring him into the game to bring beef and more double teams at the point of attack to run zone on people. He can block a DE without help from an attached position.

Grade: C+
Wesco brings real value at a position that can be hard to fill if your roster isn't loaded up with DE prospects, the less effective of which can be bulked up and moved over to play TE. I don't think he'll be having an obvious impact over the next few years but he may prove to be pretty valuable to the staff in shoring up their protections and runs.

Receivers

Holgorsen only seems to care about having the fastest freaking WR corps in the league. He'll play tiny guys outside at WR and his system makes it pretty easy to utilize speed all over the field if he can just find it and teach it to catch the ball.

Takes:

Steven Smothers: 5-10, 152. 4****
Reisterstown, MD
I'd guess that Smothers plays a role similar to Mario Alford, roasting the 2nd corner on opposing teams who lacks the speed to keep up with him. Or if he proves less adept at route running, perhaps he plays more of a slotback/flex RB role like Tavon Austin back in the day. Smothers is a legit 4.5 guy who will need to bulk up a bit but will be one of the fastest players on the field in every game.

Marcus Simms: 6-0, 175. 3***
Sandy Spring, MD
Another Maryland kid finishes out the offensive skill takes for Holgs. For my money Simms is even better than the higher-ranked Smothers. On his tape opposing teams keep trying to play him with a cushion and he'll just run past them or suck them in with a double move before downshifting and then running by them. He has a fantastic knack for running double moves and won't be a guy that opponents feel good about leaving on an island. Potentially a true ISO guy here.

Grade: B+
Not many numbers here but both of these guys have speed and athletic traits that simply can't be taught. It's hard to believe that at least one of them won't end up becoming a real terror in a few years.

Offensive line
Wickline's vision for OL isn't really different from what West Virginia has been doing for the last few years, namely trying to play as big a group as possible and pounding the ball up the middle when teams spread out with inside zone and power. They're already massive and Wickline will continue to look for massive kids but with an eye for 2/3 stars that will endure his gruff nature and exacting attention to details.

Takes:

Craig Smith: 6-7, 305. 3***
Tyler, TX (JUCO)

I think Smith is the pick of the litter here although that may be unfair since he's a JUCO and the rest are HS pups. On the other hand, he's gigantic and light on his feet. The reason that teams often jump at grabbing guys that are 6'6" or taller is that it's easier for them to be quick enough to execute schemes like outside zone that ask them to beat opponents with footwork while still overpowering them with size and muscle. At 305, Smith is actually built pretty lean but when he's got his big hands on you and some leverage he may as be 400 because you're going for a ride. I think he'll play soon.

Jacob Buccigrossi: 6-4, 275. 3***
Pittsburgh, PA
He plays offensive and defensive tackle on his film but although he's reasonably quick, I think he'll move inside to guard and if he proves to be quick enough perhaps become a lead guard to run power and counter behind.

Chase Behrndt: 6-4, 295. 3***
Ballwin, MO
This guy is a true mauler, he fires out low with a flat back and he loves the violent aspects of the game. He'll end up as a guard or center and be a road grader in Wickline's inside zone schemes. He's a guy that will test Holgorsen's commitment to continuing to mix in a lot of power or just bending to Wickline's preference and focusing on zone.

Josh Sills: 6-5, 319. 3***
Byesville, OH
Sills is just athletic enough and certainly long enough that I think he'll get some looks at tackle, perhaps after re-working his body in college S&C he'll find greater flexibility and speed, but if not he's a good fit as a guard for Wickline that can envelop an opposing DL and turn their shoulders to open a crease without needing to work with a double team.

Grade: B
West Virginia is going to find some good guards from this group, no doubt, and perhaps Smith provides immediate help at tackle to help replace Marquis Lucas and buy some time for Wickline to find more tackles on their roster. Something to watch for though is whether these guys take to Wickline or whether he overhauls the roster with his own selections.


Offense



Defensive line

This has been where West Virginia has really struggled defensively. They've done a good job of developing versatile LBs and loading up the secondary with good athletes that can play Gibson's "all or nothing" schemes that bring a combo of max coverage with zero blitzes, they haven't done a great job of finding difference-makers on the DL and they really need a new nose tackle to control the A-gaps now that Kyle Rose is finally gone.

Takes:

Jeffery Pooler: 6-4, 272. 2**
Dayton, OH
I'm not sure why Pooler is ranked so low, as a nose tackle prospect he's pretty solid. He plays low for a guy that's 6'4" and is quick enough to avoid getting reached by opposing guards. He's not going to add much pass-rush but that's not what WV is looking for here anyways. He'll end up as a 6'4" 300+ pound dude that helps keep their LBs clean.

Reese Donahue: 6-5, 245. 3***
Ona, WV
I think the fact that Donahue is an in-state kid has people overlooking how valuable a signing he is for this team. Finding those protective DEs that can set the edge, work their way into interior gaps to clog things up, keep the LBs free and running to the football, and adding a touch of pass rush are invaluable in a 3-3-5 defense. Donahue is going to need to add some serious weight but he has the frame to grow into an ideal 4i-technique DE.

Grade: C
Both of these guys are good takes, but West Virginia needs to be taking like 3-5 guys like these two in order to ensure that they have a sturdy DL that can protect their back seven every season. I think Holgorsen has tended to sacrifice DL in order to field enough athletes for his passing game and aggressive defense to work and it's a risky bet.

Linebackers

Without a crop of DL that will be likely to do more than help hold the point of attack it becomes absolutely essential that West Virginia find playmakers at linebacker that can be blitzers that have to be accounted for. In general, these guys need to be highly disruptive and mobile to make the most of the protection that Gibson's DL and DB schemes offer them.

Takes:

Brendan Ferns: 6-2, 215. 4****
Saint Clairsville, OH
Ferns is one of the most important hauls of the class, a dude who had offers from ERRBODY including Big 10 powers like Ohio State, Michigan State, and Michigan, perennial recruiting champion Alabama, and fellow B12 Oklahoma. This kid could have chosen to play in any conference at the top school and yet he chose West Virginia for whatever reason.
The reason he's so highly sought after is that he's an elite athlete for the LB position, he's excellent in coverage and capable of deep and exact drops, and he has sideline to sideline range. They couldn't have done much better in finding a replacement for Nick Kwiatkowski.

Logan Thimons: 6-1, 220. 3***
Server, PA
Call me crazy but I actually think Thimons has a chance to be an even better take than Ferns. Why? Because while he doesn't have the same kind of lateral range, he closes hard on the ball and he spent his senior year playing DE and nose tackle in a 3-4 defense. On that tape you see a kid that knows how to beat blocks on the interior, find the ball, and chase down ball carriers in the backfield.
The Mountaineer scheme really needs guys who can play in a broom closet, beat blocks, and get interior pressure in the pass rush. Thimons is that guy and he'd be a great complement to Ferns.

Zach Sandwisch: 6-3, 220. 3***
Toledo, OH
Sandwisch is a very solid, traditional OLB take. He played a lot of 4-3 Under Sam in high school and clearly understood how to play force, take on blocks on the perimeter, and had some range chasing the ball out of the box. He's a guy that could do damage if the blitz scheme helps him, which it will, and is yet another good 3-3 LB take.

Adam Hensley: 6-3, 225. 3***
Dayton, OH
They really loaded up on Ohioan linebackers in this class and they got some solid ones. Hensley has valuable experience playing inside-backer in a region that still asks guys to take on lead blocks in the hole. He's fast enough to be dangerous on the blitz but Thimons or maybe Ferns are the only guys here I think opponents will even consider scheming to block in the pass rush. He has the speed to play inside-backer in the Big 12 but could also become a nice fullback if he can't crack the depth chart.

Grade: B+
There's only one obvious impact guy here and that's Ferns but I think Thimons, Sandwisch, and Hensley are all very good 3-3 LB takes that could be good in their roles in this defense. However, if the DL doesn't pan out and the Mountaineers can't keep these guys relatively clean you aren't going to see them have a chance to dominate the box. These guys are fits to the puzzle, not guys that you build around.

Cornerbacks

Tony Gibson's scheme asks quite a bit of his secondary and these guys have to be able to play some press-man coverage without safety help at times and at other times play deep zone and help clean up by making tackles in the run game. Above all else, they prize length and versatility from their commitments here but they really need at least one lockdown corner on their team. Of course, who doesn't?

Takes:

Sean Mahone: 6-0, 198. 3***
West Chester, OH
Mahone is a borderline take at corner that might end up at safety if he doesn't develop the skills to play outside. He's got the size they are looking for and is at his best when playing in deep zone over the top.

Elijah Battle: 6-1, 190. 3***
Dodge City, KS (JUCO)
The Mountaineer secondary was decimated (worse actually, when you consider the word's origin) by graduation which was quite a blow because they had quite the secondary last year. They're losing both starting corners and are surely hoping Battle helps fill in the gaps while all of their young guys from the 2015 and 2016 classes learn the ropes.
Battle was a good shuffle-technique corner in the JUCO ranks that could play some press-bail or even bump'n'run against some WRs but if they have to ask him to guard an ISO WR by his lonesome I don't think that will end well. Could be a starting-caliber player in the short-term though.

Jacob Long: 6-0, 180. 3***
Hamilton, OH
Long is a great overall athlete and I was impressed by how attuned he seemed to be on his film to the routes opposing WRs were trying to run. He's a tough dude, though he'll need to bulk up a bit, and played some QB in HS as well. I think this guy has some nice potential down the line, a cerebral athlete.

Mike Daniels: 6-0, 195. 2**
New York, NY (JUCO)
Daniels has three years to play two so he's a little more than just another depth filler like Battle. He's excellent playing off man and snagged several INTs just by being near the ball and having flypaper hands, he kinda reminds me of Zach Sanchez in that regard. He can also play some press coverage and is probably a 4.6 guy and capable of turning and running with people.

Jacquez Adams: 6-1, 170. 2**
New Berlin, NY (Prep)
Adams was a part of the 2015 class that I really liked, a super smooth athlete who was then only about 152 and needed to attend Milford Academy to get eligible before joining the Mountaineers for this spring semester. He's got the hips to play corner, perhaps even grow into the lockdown guy they need, and so far his body is responding well to adding weight. You can't look past his 6'1" height either, that sure helps.

Grade: B
The Mountaineers added depth, some guys that might be able to help immediately, and have a few players here that might grow into the kinds of corners that can make this defense really great. No stunning prospect here though and Gibson will have to continue to earn his checks developing these cats.

Safeties

As demanding as the corner position is in this defense, safety is probably even harder. The preponderance of zero blitzes requires that these guys be able to play man coverage or they can't see the field. They also have the same needs everyone else has for guys that can play deep zone, blitz the edge, and be an extra guy in the box to stop the run.

Takes:

Toyous Avery: 6-0, 200. 3***
Coffeyville, KS (JUCO)
Yet another Jayhawk JUCO product that chose a non-KSU school, I think we'll find that really matters when we look at Snyder's 2016 class. Anyways, Avery is actually one of my favorite guys in this class. His change of direction and ability to cover a ton of ground in deep zone is above average for the Big 12. He'll have to learn to man people up but perhaps they can use Dravon Henry more in that role and drop Avery deep.

Jovanni Stewart: 5-9, 185. 2**
Katy, TX
I don't know what to do about what I'm starting to see as the "2016 Katy phenomenon" in which many people seem to think that the top players from a JUGGERNAUT Texas HS Championship team are somewhat untrustworthy as "products of a system" rather than simply being great football players. RB Kyle Porter was one guy I thought was legitimately good and would have excelled just about anywhere, Jovanni Stewart seems to be another.

The defense Stewart was a part of is going to go down as one of the greatest defenses that the state of Texas has ever seen. Playing at the highest level of Texas football at the height of the spread era they shut out 10 opponents, including their semifinal opponent. I should probably write about them at some point.

Anyways, Stewart was the edge-backer in this legion of death-bringers and would regularly play force or blitz on the edge or inside. He basically played Eric Striker's position but he honestly reminds me of Tyrann Mathieu, he's got a similar savagery and effectiveness to his play thanks to ultra-quicks and confident play. I see him as a nickel, or "spur" in Mountaineer parlance, that everyone eventually feels dumb for overlooking.

I know recruitniks are going to laugh so I'm including his senior stats and hudl here:

Dude had 101 tackles, eight forced fumbles, 10 pass break-ups, and 10 sacks. Maybe I'm just being thrown off by the Katy "system" or maybe this kid is a football player who everyone is ignoring because he's on a great team, he's undersized, and he played linebacker in high school.

I'm all in on Jovanni Stewart.

Kyzir White: 6-3, 210. 3***
Scranton, PA (JUCO)
Another product of the Lackawanna JUCO program and the favorite to replace hard-hittin' KJ Dillon as the Spur safety in 2016. White has great COD, he plays mean, and he can cover ground against the run from a deep safety alignment. I'm not sure how well he can play man coverage on a slot without safety help but he seems like a disruptive guy and a good short term replacement for Dillon until my man Stewart is ready to take over this world.

Dylan Tonkery: 6-0, 185. 3***
Bridgeport, WV
You gotta take the in-state stars sometimes, and this kid reminds me of former Texas safety Blake Gideon. He probably runs about a 4.7, he's smart and plays tons of positions, and he has some lateral range as well. The question will be how fast and flexible he is at 200 pounds but I think his future is promising. He could be a good support safety or perhaps a nickel, whether he will be a guy you trust to play man coverage I'm less confident about.

If his body really takes to college S&C it's not out of the question to imagine him spinning down to LB like Kwaitkowski did before him.

Grade: B+
The Mountaineers got two guys that will probably be very useful in the short-term and a couple of gems that I think might be good down the road. I'm not sure if they did a great job of getting guys that will be able to play man coverage (Tonkery and White are my concerns here) but it's reasonable to conclude that the cornerbacks that don't hold up outside will be moved inside to safety.

Overall Gibson definitely got some good players and in great enough quantity to ensure that West Virginia will be able to find what they need to keep playing their aggressive brand of defense. At least in the back seven.

Don't be shocked if they evolve into a 2-4 defense to make the most of this class down the line.

Friday, February 5, 2016

Breaking down Iowa State's 2016 recruiting class

New coach Matt Campbell had about two months, some of which included the dead period where coaches can't seek out communication with recruits, to build his first class at Iowa State. Fortunately, he had a list of players he had been evaluating for Toledo that he could reasonably expect to also bring to Ames if he felt they were good enough.

He also had an existing class that Paul Rhoads had been building. It seems clear enough that long-term Campbell is looking to make Iowa State into a midwestern-style team within the Big 12, so Iowa State is probably voting yes on inviting Cincy into the league.

For this class though, Campbell took seven JUCOs and already landed 13 total midwesterners (by my count, 15 if you consider Missouri to be midwestern) while signing four Floridians and only a single Texan. Long-term Campbell is going to need to hit Ohio hard (three Ohioans in this class) and probably make more inroads with the Texas high schools.

I like that he nabbed two kids from Oklahoma as that state is fairly underrated. Here's what he brought in, a total of 29 signed players with five early enrollees. They've also signed seven walk-ons from Iowa that are not evaluated here but could well prove to be important parts of the program.

Offense



Quarterback

Campbell's offense is looking for something different than most Big 12 teams, a sturdy pocket QB who can work from under center and make throws outside of the hash marks to punish defenses for loading up to stop the run.

Takes:

Zeb Noland: 6-3, 215. 3***
Watkinsville, GA
Noland is perfect for this system. He's already used to operating from under center, he's tall and comfortable making throws from the pocket, even when it's collapsing, and he has the arm strength and accuracy to push the ball down the field.

Jacob Park: 6-4, 202. 3***
Miami, OK (JUCO)
Park was once a blue-chipper to Georgia, but like so many other BC QBs, he didn't really pan out there. *EDIT* couldn't find tape

Grade: B
Iowa State stocked up for the future with Noland while taking a flyer on Park, who could potentially give them a major talent upgrade at QB if he master a new offense quickly.

Running back

Iowa State wants feature backs now, guys who can carry the ball 20-30x a game and be effective in multiple running schemes.

Takes:

David Montgomery: 5-10, 210. 3***
Cincinnati, OH
Montgomery actually played QB in HS but he was used as a single-wing weapon so he was generally running at an advantage on outnumbered fronts. He's probably a legit sub 4.7 runner and is good at running low and behind his pads at the 2nd level, which allows him to run over DBs that can't bring enough thunder to match. He's at his best in power schemes where he can threaten to plant and go upfield behind the lead block or else bounce it outside.

Kene Nwangwu: 6-0, 180. 3***
Frisco, TX
Nwangwu is the best pure athlete in this class, I was shocked to learn they plan to use him on offense until I saw the depth and quality of their DB class. His highlight tape begins with him throwing excellent cut blocks in space and concludes with him showing off what I'm guessing to be sub 4.6 speed with a number of impressive runs. Iowa State probably uses him partly as a flex RB who threatens the perimeter in conjunction with their interior runs and probably also as a utility back.

Grade: A-
Campbell landed a good prospect to become a feature back down the line in Montgomery while also potentially landing a game changer in Nwangwu.

Ancillaries

As a "the midwestern team" of the Big 12, it's essential that Iowa State keep a stable of good blockers to play TE, H-back, and fullback and some of them need to also be adept as receivers. As I've written before, a team's identity is typically defined by the kinds of players they utilize at the H&Y inside receiver positions.

Takes:

Carson Lensing: 6-4, 225. 2**
Caimar, IA
I'm not sure this kid is really 6-4 but he's definitely big enough to project to TE and he's a good football player. A google search confirms my suspicion that he's playing at a low level of football (Caimar has 965 people) but he plays just about every position and plays them all with good pad level and effort. When he's 6-2, 245 down the line he should be a pretty good H-back and he has some juice in his legs as well.

Chase Allen: 6-6, 220. 3***
Nixa, MO
If Gary Pinkel was still going strong at Missouri this kid would have never left the state. As it happens, he also had a Michigan offer, indicating what kind of TE prospect he is. Allen is not the most agile route runner in the country but he is quite quick when running up the seam, he has great hands, and he's a ferocious blocker for a dude that's still pretty lithe. His potential as an upperclassmen is very real.

Cliff Fernandez: 6-5, 265. 3***
Summit, MS (JUCO)
For my money Fernandez is the best player in this class and has a chance to be the best TE in the Big 12 in the 2016 season. Again, I have my doubts about whether this guy is that tall (probably more like 6-2 or 6-3) but I do believe the 265 number and this kid is fluid running routes. His JUCO would flex him out and let him work in isolation on overmatched DBs but he's also a decent blocker as an attached TE. You can expect to see him all over the field at Iowa State next season.

Grade: A+
Campbell got immediate help in fielding a true, pro-style offense next year by landing Fernandez while also bringing in two guys that could credibly become two-way TEs after a few years of development. The only way this Campbell project works at Iowa State is if he can find the kinds of players that make midwestern football work and he did that in a big way with this class of ancillaries.

Receivers

Campbell's offense requires the same kind of receivers as any Big 12 spread, he just needs fewer of them because perhaps only two or three are likely to play at a time. Ideally he'd have an ISO WR and a possession WR on the field at all times although I've seen good pro-style teams that only field possession WRs but have dynamic run games.

Takes:

Lawrence White: 6-1, 170. 3***
Bakersfield, CA
White is a holdover Paul Rhoads commit and is exactly the kind of kid that got Rhoads into trouble. Sure, he runs a 4.6 and can hit hard, but he plays a bit hesitant and stiff at times and his shuttle time (4.58) is concerning for his proposed future at DB. I think his straight line speed would fit best at WR but we'll see what happens.

Jalen Martin: 6-3, 200. 3***
Harper Woods, MI
I'm calling BS on this height as well. Martin plays big, runs hard after the catch, and is fearless going over the middle, but I think his true height is closer to 6-1. I'm not sure he has the speed to really threaten to take the top off of defenses as an ISO guy but he could become a reliable target.

Deshaunte Jones: 5-10, 170. 3***
Cincinnati, OH
There are several Deshaunte Jones' in every B12 recruiting class and they are hard to project because they combine ideal athleticism with "too small" frames that will have to be bulked up. I'm guessing Jones ends up on offense since he's about 20 pounds and a mindset change away from playing corner in this scheme. He could be an explosive slot or a flex RB but how he fits into the pro-style approach will depend on how he does as a route runner and catching balls in traffic.

Grade: C+
I'm guessing that Campbell felt pretty good about all of the WR depth stockpiled on campus from their attempts to build a spread offense and focused on getting other necessary pieces like TEs. Any of these guys could become productive players and Jones is a special athlete, but none of them have clear paths to dominance.

Offensive line

Iowa State is now a multiple-scheme running team that will pull OL, mix in zone blocking, and try to hit opponents with a variety of looks, angles, and big formations. To that end, they have a need for a variety of OL but a lead guard would be a nice addition.

Takes:

Karson Green: 6-5, 290. 2**
Miami, OK (JUCO)
Green takes a lot of cheap shots when he can find opportunities, which is apparently pretty often, and he's just a nasty player, which can be a good thing for an OL. I'm not sure if he can hold up at tackle against good Big 12 edge rushers, so he may have to move inside to guard. There's a good chance he's a capable obstacle before his career at Iowa State is done.

Keenan Forbes: 6-3, 310. 3***
Hollywood, FL
I'd say Forbes might have the potential to become a lead guard down the line after a few years of development. He played left tackle in high school but he's a bit too slow and definitely too short to hold up there at the college level. It's amusing to watch him try to swat away pass-rushers on his highlight tape with his shorter arms but also indicative of a kid who fights hard every snap.

Oge Udeogu: 6-4, 310. 3***
San Francisco, CA (JUCO)
Udeogu is a pretty mobile cat who's at his best locking onto DL in zone schemes but is also capable of finding defenders in space and might make a solid lead guard in the near future.

Josh Mueller: 6-6, 275. 3***
Mequon, WI
It's hard to go wrong grabbing big German kids out of Wisconsin to play OL. Mueller doesn't play with great knee bend yet and his footwork comes and goes but you see him regularly reach DEs on outside zone schemes and he can move when he has a mind to. There's a chance he makes a good tackle in several years time after some S&C and coaching.

Sean Foster: 6-8, 285. 3***
Mundelein, IL
Foster is considered the prize of the OL class, I see a somewhat mixed bag. If he got his meat hooks into DL it was pretty much over, but that's what you expect from a dude that's 6-8, 285. He's at his best on inside zone taking his initial step and then sealing DEs away from the targeted creases. Foster might be the lead tackle they are hoping for in Ames, I think he has a good shot to at least be a starting RT that doesn't get abused when opposing teams have more than one good pass-rusher.

Dylan Soehner: 6-6, 277. 3***
Prairie Grove, AR
I'm not sure how they pulled this kid out from under Bielema's nose, it surely can't hurt that he was listed as a "TE" despite being larger than most TEs as a high schooler with a genetic roadmap to being a 300+ pound OL with mobility. He did play TE in high school but only so that he could lead the way on the edge or pull around the opposite end. I think this kid could become a lead tackle in several years time and is the best OL recruit in the class.

Grade: B-
Campbell took numbers here and got some guys that can potentially provide some more immediate help in the two JUCOs along with at least three HS kids that I think might have the potential to grow into starting-caliber B12 tackles some day. You gotta take numbers on OL because it's hard to say how these kids will turn out after college S&C, fine-tuning in the art of blocking, and facing the challenge of taking on some of the biggest, baddest athletes in the world in opposing DL and LBs.

Defense


Defensive line

There's clearly some confusion amongst Iowa State writers in the midst of all their staff changes and what has basically been the wholesale hire of the entire Toledo staff as to what kind of defense they are going to run next season. What it will end up being is something similar to the 4-3 Over, cover 4 defense they were running under Rhoads and Burnham (until they switched to a 3-4 last year) but with a greater emphasis on playing cover 2 to the boundary rather than dropping the boundary safety into the box and playing the boundary corner on an island as Rhoads would commonly do.

The story up front is the same as it ever was, they want versatile DL who can control the line of scrimmage and collapse the pocket without having to blitz too often.

Takes:

Jamahi Johnson: 6-0, 319. 3***
Savage, MN
Johnson is good at attacking the backfield with his speed off the ball, particularly when he's working on the backside of a play. He'd have been a better fit in the 3-down fronts Iowa State was running this year but he could be a good 2i-tech in an Over front that can cause problems on stunts and blitzes.

Jaquan Bailey: 6-3, 245. 3***
Jacksonville, FL
The smaller and more heralded of a pair of twins, Jaquan projects as a defensive end and he handles space and being read on spread-option schemes pretty well. I don't know if he'll be an elite pass-rusher any day but he could be a productive strongside end with some weight gain and technical training.

Joshua Bailey: 6-3, 260. 3***
Jacksonville, FL
The bigger Bailey looks like he'll be another DT like Jamahi that's at his best stunting and attacking plays from the backside.

Jerrion Nelson: 6-2, 260. 3***
Columbia, MO
Campbell's defensive staff is going to have their work cut out for them building a 4-down front out of all these guys that seem to have been recruited for the slanting-heavy 30 fronts Iowa State was running last year. Nelson joins Joshua Bailey and Jamahi Johnson as guys that are disruptive but will have to gain weight and learn how to use their hands to control OL and gaps rather than just attacking them.

Eyioma Uwazurike: 6-6, 254. 3***
Southfield, MI
Another guy who's excellent on the move but he's better at traditional 4-down twists then slanting into gaps because he can uncoil and unleash tremendous power with just a few steps worth of momentum. His frame looks like it could carry a lot more weight so his future is somewhat clouded when I gaze into my crystal ball but I suppose the best case scenario for Iowa State is that he grows into a 3-technique that can hold the point of attack but is absolutely dominant on passing down stunts.

Grade: C
Campbell definitely got numbers here for a program that had gone JUCO-heavy as Rhoads became desperate to plug holes in his sinking ship. These guys are all going to need a lot of development, save for Jamahi who comes fairly well packaged for his ultimate destination, but I suppose they had to regularly do a ton of development at Toledo as well. I have a suspicion that Iowa State is going to have to do a lot of blitzing to get pressure in the coming years.

Linebacker

The story here is the same as it's always been at Iowa State, the Cyclones need one true inside-backer who can help control the interior running game and then they need versatile athletes at the outside- and space-backer positions that can blitz and run from sideline to sideline.

Takes:

Tymar Sutton: 5-10, 210. 3***
Mckeesport, PA
Sutton is a fun prospect who played as a 3-4 OLB in a 3-4 on defense and as a veer-option QB on offense. Think Taylor Young here, this guy has real speed for a linebacker and can cover ground laterally in a flash but he lives to mix it up between the tackles. He could be a great weakside linebacker for Iowa State, probably sooner than later.

Grade: C-
You don't need just a ton of linebackers in the Big 12 but the Cyclones are going to need to find some guys that can get to the QB in the coming years at some position and at 5-10 Sutton is not a guy that's going to spin down and become an edge-rusher, though I think he'll become a good player. Probably Campbell and his staff feel okay with their numbers at this position for now.

Cornerback

Because new DC Jon Heacock runs a lot more true two-deep than did Rhoads, there's less of a need for phenomenal cover-corners and instead a secondary-wide onus on guys that can play physical and tackle. A boundary corner who could handle an ISO assignment would be nice but they could probably afford to play their better coverage guy to the field and help everyone else out with 1/2 field safeties.

Takes:

Lonnie Johnson: 6-3, 190. 3***
Garden City, KS (JUCO)
Johnson is a press corner who actually has the hips to also turn and run with receivers, though I'm not sure how he'd hold up trying that trick without safety help against the likes of James Washington. He's good in run support, which again is crucial for this scheme.

D'Andre Payne: 5-9, 185. 3***
Yuma, AZ (JUCO)
Payne was once a highly touted Tennessee Vol who played as a true freshman but flushed out of the program and went JUCO to get eligible again. Now he's a rare breed of athlete in a Cyclone uniform that excel as a cover corner who can play press and run with receivers in and out of their breaks. My suspicion is that he'll end up as a field corner who's just trusted to lock down the field outside receiver while everyone else plays zone.

Thaddeus Daniels: 6-2, 195. 3***
Norwalk, CA (JUCO)
Daniels is another good press guy that is physical in jamming WRs and coming off to force the run so he figures to factor in on the boundary or at nickel. While Johnson is solid at carrying receivers vertical, I wouldn't have much faith in Daniels being asked to jam a WR without safety help over the top.

Grade: C+
These guys all fit the system pretty well and a future starting secondary of Payne to the field, Johnson to the boundary, and Daniels at nickel might be worthwhile provided the safeties playing behind them were good and the front could bring a pass rush. Since they're all JUCO transfers though, they may not be around long enough to be maxed out.

Safety

The biggest need here, as it is for most current Big 12 teams, is for a rangy free safety that can not only survive getting targeted but actually shrinks the field for the offense. A boundary safety that can play cover 2 or drop down into the box would also be a valuable piece.

Arnold Azunna: 6-0, 187. 3***
Mansfield, TX
Azunna played corner in HS and may stick there in college but he was at his best playing deep zone, coming up to hit people, and running down the field. When he was tasked with trying to stick with guys underneath on slants and quicks he had some struggles. In this cover 2-heavy scheme I think that skill set will translate best to the back end and he may end up at 200 pounds anyways, which is a safety-sized player. On the back end he could be a plus athlete.

Jatairis Grant: 6-0, 180. 3***
Akron, OH
Grant doesn't strike me as having tremendous range to handle playing in a ton of space to the field, but in more confined space on the boundary or at the nickel his fluidity and the violence with which he plays I think he could be a real player. When he gets to be 200 or so I think Grant will prove to be a reliable tackler for the Cyclones on the back end.

Romelo Webster: 5-11, 170. 3***
Hallandale, FL
Webster on the other hand, this guy has tremendous quickness and effective range when playing the ball. He belongs aligned to the field somewhere, ideally at field corner or free safety. He'll need to get a bit bigger but you need guys like this to win in the Big 12 or the amount of space offenses will put you in can just tear you apart.

Grade: B-
For Cyclone standards this is a pretty good haul and the total number of good athletes Campbell acquired for the secondary increases the odds that they're able to put guys in positions where they can find success.

You find over and over again with B12 teams that guys who could be effective on the boundary or at nickel are instead lined up at free safety and destroyed. Or the guy who could be a fantastic #2 corner is instead asked to play on an island against the top WRs and gets beat. The answer is to stockpile athletes who are willing tacklers and to get after the passer. Matt Campbell's first class at Iowa State accomplished at least one of those aims.

Peeking up north at former B12 school Nebraska's 2016 class

I've written a lot about Nebraska since they unceremoniously dumped Bo Pellini and brought aboard uber-likable Mike Riley from Oregon State to attempt to bring back Cornhusker football.

I decided to take a look at what he brought in for his first full recruiting class in Lincoln and I came away impressed. Check it out over at Football Study Hall.

Breaking down Texas' 2016 recruiting class

You can read all about the 2016 Texas recruiting class and how it fits over at Inside Texas FOR FREE!

Iowa State should be up later today as well, if you're lucky, in this space.

Thursday, February 4, 2016

Time to break down every Big 12 2016 recruiting class

It's that time! National signing day has come and gone and now it's time to look at what every team brought in. My aim here will be to break down every class from the perspective of what that team needs to execute their strategies and whether their recruits project as players that can be successfully plugged into those strategies. Then I'll give a grade for every position group and wrap it all up by ranking the classes.

We'll move from North to South on this, except with Texas whom I will break down over at Inside Texas and link from this site in the coming days.

So we'll go:

Iowa State
West Virginia
Kansas State
Kansas
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma
Texas Tech
TCU
Baylor

I'm going to use terms from my glossaries of modern Big 12 offensive and defensive positions so read up on those if you want to be ready to keep up with the concepts and roles I'll be discussing. This is going to be fun, hope everyone's ready to dive in deep to their own team and perhaps some others as well.

How Harbaugh will make the most of the nation's no. 1 recruit

Harbaugh has landed the nation's consensus no. 1 recruit, Rashan Gary, who will undoubtedly prove to be a major weapon for them both in shutting down Big 10 running games but also in disrupting opposing passing attacks. You don't see a ton of talents like this within the Big 12, really anywhere, but certainly not in the Big 12.

Read about this freakish DL over at SB Nation.