Wednesday, August 31, 2016

Notes on the Big 12 depth charts

Most of the Big 12 released depth charts for game week, which is always an exciting time for someone who spends large chunks of the offseason building text edit documents tracking those kinds of things.

The major hesitation on the part of multiple coaches across the country to name their starters at quarterback has been part annoying/part amusing to this writer. Hearing Charlie Strong explain how they aren't hurt in preparing for Notre Dame because they have tape on both guys while then insisting on not wanting to allow the Irish to know which QB to prepare for...amusing.

Alright, here are some of the more interesting depth charts I've seen so far in the Big 12.

Oklahoma


There's virtually nothing surprising on the Sooner depth chart, perhaps the most interesting note is that former four-star recruit Ricky DeBerry is option B for the Jack pass-rushing position if Obo isn't up for that featured role. Caleb Kelly is competing for Striker's old position while Mark Jackson is behind DeBerry at the Jack spot, exactly as I anticipated.

Jordan Thomas moved over to the left cornerback spot, which tends to end up on the boundary more often and seems to be where Mike Stoops sticks his best corner. Honestly, that has often looked like a mistake over the last few years as it regularly put Zack Sanchez in positions where he had to make fills against the run game. I always found those instances hilarious...

..."nah, you got this bruh."

It looks like 5'10, 160 pound Dakota Fanning will be mostly spared the indignity of avoiding violence at the right cornerback position. Stolen Baylor recruit Parrish Cobb is already listed as the 2nd team cornerback.

Alright, one more "Sanchez avoiding violence" clip and we'll move on.

Kansas State


The most surprising revelation from the K-State depth chart is the youth across the offensive line. From left to right it goes: Redshirt freshman, redshirt freshman, redshirt junior, redshirt senior, redshirt sophomore.

The redshirt sophomore at right tackle, Dalton Risner, is the only returning starter and he played center last year. Now I've seen film (HS or B12) on all of these guys and I think this is a very talented group, well suited to what the Wildcats want to do on offense. That said, part of being a top five "run-scheming offense" is all of the variety they have in how they run the ball and how effective they always are in getting good double teams at the point of attack.

Will such a young group be up to the challenge of executing their diverse playbook? Something to watch.

Other interesting notes include Byron Pringle listed as the lead WR (called it), Jesse Ertz reclaiming the starting role, JUCO transfer DJ Reed rescuing EMAW from watching Johnny D get burned all year at corner opposite Duke Shelley, and Trey Dishon winning the 3-technique defensive tackle spot.

Matt Seiwert actually played well against Arkansas (at the nose, no less) before he was injured so it may really be something that Dishon won that job. I remember being surprised and bought in when Dishon hurdled over a dude as a 290-pound ballcarrier on his HUDL. The Wildcat defense is looking pretty good.

TCU


When my man Eric Nahlin (Inside Texas) texted me the released Frog depth chart we both had a good laugh over everyone who thought this team would struggle on offense this year. The level of speed and athleticism written in at the skill positions in Ft. Worth is insane.

First of all, you have former Longhorn recruit Emmanuel Porter now listed as a starter. That dude is all kinds of big and fast. Then you have JUCO transfer Taj Williams, a big target on the outside to help replace Josh Doctson. Finally there's Kavontae Turpin, who's at the top of my preseason watch list for the "Darren Sproles water bug trophy for most outstanding tiny person."

Assuming Kenny "Trill" is ready to go, and this nice feature by David Ubben portends good things, I think this offense is going to kill this coming year.

Judging by the small size of the Frog defensive backfield, which averages 6'0", 192 pounds with the largest guy standing at 6'3" 210, I'm guessing Patterson will have alternative packages for teams like Arkansas. My bet is that they move Travin Howard to strong safety for that game, move Denzel Johnson to weak safety in place of Nick Orr, and play whoever the 3rd best LB is in Howard's spot.

Against most of the Big 12, this ultra-quick lineup is going to be a nightmare.

Texas Tech


The Raider lineup is fairly interesting with some shuffling here and there that I didn't foresee. They moved inside receiver D.J. Polite-Bray to cornerback and he apparently won the job of Thierry Ngeuma, who was reasonably decent a year ago. D'Vonta Hinton has remained at weakside linebacker while freshman Jordyn Brooks steps in at middle linebacker after Dakota Allen was kicked out.

I'm high on Hinton but can understand wanting him at the will since they like to ask their middle linebacker to make Tampa-2 drops down the pipe and Hinton wouldn't shine in that role. My impression of Brooks out of high school was that he was a good athlete for linebacker but would have to adjust from playing as a safety. That adjustment will be less at the middle linebacker position that spends a lot of time locking down flat routes in man coverage or dropping into a middle 1/3 in terms of coverage. It'll be interesting to see how well he fills the role of inside-backer against run schemes.

Moving nickel/corner Tevin Madison to free safety behind Jah'Shawn Johnson was an interesting move, I thought Madison was okay at times in 2016 and this would seem to bury him.

Much of their season will probably depend on how healthy and conditioned Ondre Pipkins turns out to be after getting pushed out of Ann Arbor by Harbaugh over concerns about his knees.

Baylor


Lots of interesting things with the Bears' depth chart. Chance Waz is apparently in trouble and they have moved Orion Stewart over to cover safety, elevating former star recruit Davion Hall to the no. 1 spot at the deep safety position. I called this on Twitter and here, it simply makes a lot of sense to move Stewart (who's good in coverage) over to the field in order to get Hall out there.

They're going all-in on the Okie front with Taylor Young as the "Jack" OLB/DE, where he was brilliant a year ago. If they don't get beat up with injuries or distractions the Bears will be fielding a very talented team to start the year. Of course, both of those seem more than likely with likely stars Travon Blanchard and Ishmael Zamora each already taken out by those two factors.

Oklahoma State, Kansas, Texas, Iowa State, and West Virginia


There's not much interesting about OSU's depth chart other than an absence of Barry Sanders at RB and a little bit of shuffling along the line. I'm still curious to see if they unveil a dime package featuring Derrick Moncrief in the box or not.

I've been talking about Texas' lineup for months over at InsideTexas.com

The Jayhawks are obnoxiously avoiding naming Ryan Willis the starter, I suspect there's legitimate delusion in Lawrence that Montell Cozart may be up to the challenge. They prefer a mobile guy, hoping to emulate Kingsbury's success with athletic, versatile QBs.

Don't blow your chance to finally win a football game, Beaty.

It looks like Campbell is going full-bore with a youth movement. Not totally sure what to make of them for this year although I'm sure they'll be towards the bottom of the league.

Here's the list of Mountaineers expected to lead the death march of Holgorsen's 2016 season.

Stats to track for Texas in 2016

Over at Inside Texas I broke down some stats to track that should indicate how well Texas is growing and adjusting after a horrible 2015 season ($).

Monday, August 29, 2016

Patrick Mahomes and the future of spread quarterbacking

There are dozens of different forces coming together to shape Patrick Mahomes' junior year at Texas Tech. Regular readers are surely well aware that I'm very high on Mahomes and Kingsbury producing another elite offense in 2016.

Here's a breakdown of what makes Mahomes special, why he's likely to lead an elite offense, and how quarterback evaluation and development is changing due to the success of talents like Mahomes.

Check it out at Vice Sports.

Picking Big 12 games against the spread

Last year I publicly humiliated myself by trying to pick some Big 12 games against the spread. I've decided to try and again with the week one games so that you can all marvel at how brilliant I am or else point and laugh at how horribly off my selections end up being. History says the latter is more likely, I guess we'll see.

Part of the problem last year is that when you don't actually bet and you just make picks for fun...you ignore home and away and take bad chances. I'm not going to change the part about betting, I think gambling is a foolish vice, but I'll try and make more measured picks and see what happens.

Baylor vs Northwestern (no line)


Obviously the Bears gonna roll the whatever NW St's mascot is's.

Pick: Baylor will win, can't guess against the line obviously.

Oklahoma -10 at (ish) Houston


Everyone's models on Oklahoma are based on what they did last year against a schedule that was decimated by injuries. Meanwhile the Sooners played four opponents a year ago that relied heavily on the QB run game: Tennessee, Texas, K-State, and Clemson. They went 2-2 in those games and looked out-toughed in the losses and vulnerable to the QB run game in every contest save for against the Wildcats.

This game is going to be a very useful barometer for whether the Sooners can match the hype this year or if they are still vulnerable to A) solid teams that aren't missing their QB or B) the QB run game. In a few weeks they'll face another barometer of whether they can hang with teams that also have elite talent (Ohio State).

In the meantime, I'm not giving them the benefit of the doubt.

Pick: Oklahoma wins but fails to cover.

Kansas State +15 at Stanford


Boy is that ever a lot of points for a team that's replacing their QB facing another team that normally overachieves but were devastated by injuries a year ago. It kinda looks like the oddsmakers just said, "okay so Arkansas beat KSU by 22 points and Stanford basically = Arkansas so..."

Stanford does return McCaffrey and will be playing from the comfort of their own stadium. It'll also help the Cardinal a great deal to have extra time to prepare for the Wildcat offense, which is pretty unique in college football. All that said, I think the markets currently (almost perpetually, really) undervalue K-State.

Pick: Stanford wins, fails to cover.


West Virginia -9.5 vs Missouri


Amongst my various non-consensus takes on the coming season is my firm belief that West Virginia is overrated and won't survive their grievous losses on defense from graduation/injury. Meanwhile, Missouri is probably going to be pretty good on defense and can't possibly be that bad again on offense with Drew Lock now solidly entrenched as the starter in a new system.

At the very least it seems unlikely that West Virginia's offense will be able to drop enough points to cover that spread but I think Missouri might actually have the better team.

Pick: Missouri wins outright


Oklahoma State vs Southeastern Louisiana (no line)


Only interesting thing here will be whether the Cowboys can run the ball or not. Last year doing so even against lower level competition was a real struggle.

Pick: Pokes roll


Kansas vs Rhode Island (no line)


I pause here to remind everyone that Kansas hasn't won a football game yet for David Beaty...people this could be it.

Pick: Celebration in Lawrence!

Texas +3.5 vs Notre Dame


Wow, the money must be pouring in on Notre Dame to give Texas that many points. I'll preview this one over at Inside Texas but I think most of the decisive match-ups in this game are either draws or favor the Irish save perhaps for Sterlin Gilbert vs Brian VanGorder.

Both of the possible Notre Dame starters at QB would start at Texas, for instance. That seems likely to have an impact on this game.

Pick: Notre Dame covers

The rest of the games aren't even worth mentioning. What do y'all think?

Imagining Alabama with Jalen Hurts as QB

Doing so is somewhat akin to downing a bowl of ice cream while watching scary movies, you're just setting yourself up for a sleepless night.

Of course he's just a freshman, so there will probably be growing pains. The Alabama offense isn't exactly high level sodoku though so there's a good chance he can gain a decent mastery of Kiffin's system and be rolling by the end of the year.

Read all about it over at Football Study Hall.

Previewing Auburn vs Clemson

I broke down how Malzahn's squad will have to find some answers in a hurry to take on the contenders in Clemson over at SB Nation.

I think Malzahn's fate was sealed when Sean White was named the starter because John Franklin III wasn't ready to take over. Unless this team has a really good WR and RB on the roster that no one's heard of yet (possible) who can command attention, I think this is Malzahn's last year at the Barn.

Funny thing is, I think the defense might actually be quite good despite hiring everyone's former DC, Kevin Steele. They looked pretty sound in the spring game and they have the right pieces to make his system work.

Wednesday, August 24, 2016

Texas' easier finish: West Virginia, Kansas, TCU

Over at Inside Texas I concluded my preview of the Longhorns' schedule with their final three-game stretch of West Virginia, Kansas, and TCU. Go there and you can hear my thoughts on how those teams look, how they match-up with Texas, and some extra insights on why the Frogs are a particularly tough challenge for the Longhorns.